Daily Market Snapshot: August 14, 2026

Brought to you by your local Edward Jones financial advisors. Friday 8/14/2026 Stocks are little changed, with household spending in focus – U.S. equity markets are opening near the flatline on Friday following a softer-than-expected July retail-sales report. Headline retail sales fell 0.6% for the month, compared with expectations for a 0.1% gain. From a leadership perspective, most S&P 500 sectors are opening flat to higher, led by energy and communication services, and the energy sector on pace for a weekly gain of roughly 7%. Overseas, Asian markets finished mixed, while European equities are trading near the flatline. Treasury yields are also mixed to begin the day. The 2-year yield is modestly lower at approximately 4.13%, potentially reflecting reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening following the softer retail-sales report. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield is little changed at around 4.65%. Consumer spending softens in July – Headline retail sales fell 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% gain and posting their first monthly decline since January. Despite the monthly pullback, sales remained 5.0% higher compared to this time last year. Looking beneath the headline, declines at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations weighed on July sales. However, weakness extended beyond these categories, as retail sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline also declined 0.2% for the month. A 2.2% decline in sales at nonstore retailers, a category that includes online shopping, contributed to the broader weakness. However, the drop may partly reflect a timing distortion, as Amazon moved Prime Day from its traditional July window to June 23–26 this year, potentially pulling some purchases forward into June. In our view, elevated tax refunds stemming from legislation enacted in 2025 likely supported consumers during the first half of the year. Combined with relatively stable labor-market conditions and a low pace of layoffs, this support likely helped offset the pressure that higher energy prices placed on household finances. With the boost from tax refunds likely behind us, a more moderate pace of spending appears reasonable to us over the second half of the year. Nevertheless, we expect consumer spending to remain stable through year-end, supported by healthy household balance sheets and low unemployment. Contained inflation supports a Fed pause in September – Markets breathed a sigh of relief this week as July's consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation reports came in largely in line with, or below, expectations. On the consumer side, headline CPI rose a modest 0.1% for the month and eased to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Core CPI increased 0.2% in July and 2.5% from a year earlier. Over the three months through July, core CPI rose at a 1.6% annualized rate, marking the first three-month reading below the Fed's 2% inflation target this year. The producer price report provided further evidence of moderating price pressures. Headline PPI was unchanged in July, while PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2%, below expectations. Before last week's payroll report, markets had priced in roughly a 60% probability of a 0.25-percentage-point rate increase at the Fed's September meeting. Following this week's inflation data, futures markets are now tilted toward a pause, with the probability of a rate increase falling to approximately 30%. Barring an upside surprise in the August inflation data or renewed energy-price pressures, we believe the recent string of moderate inflation readings support the Fed holding rates steady in September. Important information: This is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as specific investment advice. 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